207-221 Washburn St

Lockport, NY 14094

$199,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 6,718 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,445/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $550/mo
• Annual: $6,601/yr
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.79%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Severe wear and tear, likely unsafe and in need of replacement
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Basic fixtures, no updates, likely in need of replacement
• Major: Roof — Large roof footprint, potential issues not visible, likely in need of replacement
• Major: Exterior siding — Peeling paint and worn siding, likely in need of replacement
• Major: Flooring — Worn and outdated flooring, likely in need of replacement
• Major: HVAC unit — Older unit, likely in need of replacement or repair