23617 SE 243rd Pl

Maple Valley, WA 98038

$645,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,382
• Tax + insurance: −$826
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$958
• Net cashflow: $-653/mo
• Annual: $-7,835/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $180,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $645k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-653 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $530k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $456k (29.2% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $456k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#24 in WA, #461 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Tahoma School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #10 of 291 in WA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rock Creek Elementary (725 students, 15% FRL); Summit Trail Middle School (1,098 students, 15% FRL); Tahoma Senior High School (2,790 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Maple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($152k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.