25 Horseshoe Dr

East Hampton North, NY 11937

$6,150,000F

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,750 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,571/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$32,251
• Tax + insurance: −$10,250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,370
• Net cashflow: $-22,300/mo
• Annual: $-267,600/yr
• Cap rate: 1.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.54%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $1,722,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath land listed at $6.15M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22k ($-268k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.92M (52.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.56M (58.4% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($5.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.56M (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $43k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $184k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,013 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.20M; list at $6.15M implies a 412% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $25,571/mo this rent would consume 236% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.