3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,166 sqft ·
Built 1953
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 232 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,828/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$268
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$384
Net cashflow
$127/mo
Annual
$1,529/yr
Cap rate
7.06%
Cash-on-cash
2.73%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.6% below list).
It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#594 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fred G. Garner Elementary School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 901 students, 62% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WS6C9YE5CRYMC8
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29