1127 Payson Ave

Quincy, IL 62301

$94,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1885 · SingleFamily · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $640/mo
• Annual: $7,674/yr
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.16%
• DSCR: 2.30
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $26,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#506 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, employment D.
• Quincy SD 172 (town): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #328 of 620 in IL (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 68 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.3% in Quincy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.