4005 Robert E Lee Dr

Hopewell, VA 23860

$229,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-958/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.7% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: L.L. Beazley Elementary (math 82% / reading 86%, grade A+, #87 of 1,108 statewide, top 8%, 584 students, 65% FRL); J.E.J. Moore Middle (math 61% / reading 71%, grade A-, #113 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 1,393 students, 33% FRL); Prince George High (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A-, #102 of 319 statewide, top 32%, 1,796 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 28% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 68% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $230k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.