4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,729 sqft ·
Built 1979
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 149 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,279/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$269
Net cashflow
$147/mo
Annual
$1,760/yr
Cap rate
7.70%
Cash-on-cash
5.03%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 36/100 on livability (#579 in AL) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Sumter County (rural): math 2% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #124 of 129 in AL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Sumter Central High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 301 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools at 95% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sumter County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WT3Y4RANH25CHS
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29