8434 Commercial St

Savage, MD 20763

$219,999C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$381
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,255/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (0.9% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#133 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Howard County Public Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #1 of 24 in MD (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 881 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (285 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howard County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $220k implies a 633% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.