2042 Girard St #126

Delano, CA 93215

$155,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $820/mo
• Annual: $9,839/yr
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.67%
• DSCR: 2.01
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,143 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delano Union Elementary (suburban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Terrace Elementary (442 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 76% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.2% in Delano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.