2506 Rugby Pike

Allardt, TN 38556

$227,500D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,509/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax + insurance: −$379
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,561/yr
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.16%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $63,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#194 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fentress County (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #91 of 139 in TN (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fentress Elementary School (math 19% / reading 25%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 632 students, 0% FRL); Clarkrange High School (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 332 statewide, top 22%, 260 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fentress County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in Allardt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?