40 Merchant St

Barre, VT 05641

$160,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,474 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 344 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,118/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $625/mo
• Annual: $7,502/yr
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#92 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Barre City Elementary/Middle School (math 20% / reading 33%, grade F, #159 of 192 statewide, top 83%, 784 students, 39% FRL); Spaulding Union High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #10 of 48 statewide, top 28%, 615 students, 21% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $160k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.6% in Barre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.