5387 County Rd 154 Trlr 4

Cattle Creek, CO 81601

$264,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,868/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $640/mo
• Annual: $7,682/yr
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.47%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $264k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $264k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#419 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roaring Fork School District No. Re-1 (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 86 in CO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 0.4% in Cattle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.