2343 Quarter Horse Trl

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$120,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 6,912 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Pending · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,846/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$327
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $409/mo
• Annual: $4,908/yr
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $120k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.