2034 Garfield Ave

Lynchburg, VA 24501

$119,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,158/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $86/mo
• Annual: $1,033/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William M. Bass Elementary (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 175 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $120k implies a 229% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.