15816 W Lemon Dr

Orange Grove Mobile Manor, AZ 85350

$85,000C+

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,057/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $317/mo
• Annual: $3,800/yr
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.96%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#327 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orange Grove Elementary School (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #722 of 1,109 statewide, top 66%, 379 students, 89% FRL); Somerton Middle School (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 625 students, 87% FRL); Kofa High School (math 13% / reading 15%, grade F, #277 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 2,541 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.