40 Westside Saginaw Rd

Monitor, MI 48706

$129,900C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $284/mo
• Annual: $3,413/yr
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mackensen Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #276 of 1,397 statewide, top 22%, 245 students, 39% FRL); Western Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 726 students, 36% FRL); Bay City Western High School (math 35% / reading 61%, grade D, #183 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,102 students, 29% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Bay City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.