2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,680 sqft ·
Built 2014
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,777/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$285
HOA
−$115
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$373
Net cashflow
$-281/mo
Annual
$-3,368/yr
Cap rate
4.92%
Cash-on-cash
-4.91%
DSCR
0.78
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (20.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (27.5% below list).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $178k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Three Creeks Elem School (math 55% / reading 48%, grade C-, #256 of 994 statewide, top 26%, 515 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
Market conditions: 353 active listings in the ZIP; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $167k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WYB9CG5NKR4SQ5
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29