305 W Main St

Kirbyville, TX 75956

$180,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-426/mo
• Annual: $-5,112/yr
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (34.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (42.5% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (42.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Kirbyville CISD (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #274 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kirbyville El (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 722 students, 70% FRL); Kirbyville J H (math 58% / reading 43%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 363 students, 64% FRL); Kirbyville H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 417 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.