309 Quail Forest Cir

Toccoa, GA 30577

$292,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,854 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-731/mo
• Annual: $-8,770/yr
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $81,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-731 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#131 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.