14 Liberty Pl

Odessa, TX 79762

$238,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $643/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.96%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $66,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ross El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 408 students, 76% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.