3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,633 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Price Change
· 249 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,811/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,437
Tax + insurance
−$261
HOA
−$21
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$380
Net cashflow
$-288/mo
Annual
$-3,454/yr
Cap rate
5.03%
Cash-on-cash
-4.50%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$76,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (18.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (33.9% below list).
It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $181k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rose Garden El (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 902 students, 48% FRL); Ray D Corbett J H (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,188 students, 40% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WYZXXQ8GW8RJS8
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29