3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,224 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,903/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$298
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$400
Net cashflow
$-53/mo
Annual
$-637/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.95%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$67,197
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-637/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.7% below list).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $190k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Mack Benn Jr. Elementary (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 684 students, 66% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle (math 22% / reading 61%, grade F, #299 of 342 statewide, top 88%, 544 students, 64% FRL); King'S Fork High (math 44% / reading 77%, grade C+, #244 of 319 statewide, top 77%, 1,697 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29