308 Jersey Ln

Fair Oaks, TX 78006

$424,310D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,951 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,772/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,225
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-843/mo
• Annual: $-10,112/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $118,807

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $424k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-843 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kendall El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 816 students, 23% FRL); Boerne Middle South (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 911 students, 18% FRL); Boerne - Samuel V Champion H S (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #114 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,014 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1134 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.