5501 Baylor Ave

McAllen, TX 78573

$275,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,142 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$679
• HOA: −$55
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-435/mo
• Annual: $-5,222/yr
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.78%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olivero Garza Sr El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 587 students, 82% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland Pioneer H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,471 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 625 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,204/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 855% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.