29501 Sandburg Way #257

Hayward, CA 94544

$298,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax + insurance: −$649
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $319/mo
• Annual: $3,828/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.77%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $83,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $298k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $289k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $298k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.