1204 W Hill St

Urbana, IL 61801

$90,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built — · Other · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $556/mo
• Annual: $6,674/yr
• Cap rate: 13.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.48%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in IL, #1,793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Urbana SD 116 (urban): math 11% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #568 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wiley Elementary School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,741 of 2,056 statewide, top 93%, 234 students, 0% FRL); Urbana Middle School (math 6% / reading 6%, grade F, #634 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 903 students, 0% FRL); Urbana High School (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,220 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 573 units permitted in Champaign County in 2024 (359 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Champaign County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.6% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,586/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 2719% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.