89 Deer Pond Rd

Millbrook, NY 12585

$575,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax + insurance: −$949
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-1,488/mo
• Annual: $-17,854/yr
• Cap rate: 3.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.09%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $161,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $575k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (45.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (45.5% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($506k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (45.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Millbrook Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #198 of 755 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elm Drive Elementary School (192 students, 22% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 202 students, 37% FRL); Millbrook High School (math 87%, 271 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 2.0% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.