Greenbriar Plan

Morrow, OH 45152

$404,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 281 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,121
• Tax + insurance: −$674
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $1,941/mo
• Annual: $23,286/yr
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.56%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $113,264

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $405k).
• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $356k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#266 in OH, #4,231 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $113k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Morrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,995/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.