12507 Cortez Rd W #56

Cortez, FL 34215

$124,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 330 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax + insurance: −$587
• HOA: −$475
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,262/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $34,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $76k (38.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($857 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#486 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $124k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?