31375 SW 192nd Ave

Homestead, FL 33030

$476,690D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,345 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,500
• Tax + insurance: −$947
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$789
• Net cashflow: $-478/mo
• Annual: $-5,741/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $133,473

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $477k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $407k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $376k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#158 in FL, #2,408 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Homestead K-8 Center (math 27% / reading 21%, grade F, #2,057 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 851 students, 61% FRL); Homestead Middle School (math 23% / reading 25%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 666 students, 81% FRL); South Dade Senior High School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 3,145 students, 73% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Homestead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,757/mo this rent would consume 98% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.