5709 Campbell Blvd

Lockport, NY 14094

$160,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-552/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-552/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (10.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $143k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Starpoint Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #160 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Regan Intermediate School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B, #663 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 679 students, 18% FRL); Starpoint Middle School (math 43% / reading 70%, grade B, #204 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 698 students, 16% FRL); Starpoint High School (math 100% / reading 72%, grade A, #358 of 1,100 statewide, top 33%, 922 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $160k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.