3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,558 sqft ·
Built 1969
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 190 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,912/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,933
Tax + insurance
−$1,254
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,662
Net cashflow
$1,064/mo
Annual
$12,770/yr
Cap rate
8.68%
Cash-on-cash
8.52%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$210,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $750k).
It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $660k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $580k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $7,912/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29