3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,024 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 82 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,695/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,516
Tax + insurance
−$706
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$566
Net cashflow
$-92/mo
Annual
$-1,109/yr
Cap rate
7.68%
Cash-on-cash
4.96%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$80,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (5.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (6.7% below list).
It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $270k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Dune Lakes Elementary School (math 74% / reading 68%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 928 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1585 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
13 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; list at $289k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-X41570D01NDWE8
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29