3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,204 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,099/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$77
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$231
Net cashflow
$162/mo
Annual
$1,948/yr
Cap rate
7.92%
Cash-on-cash
5.80%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$33,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (8.4% below list).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Hopkinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-X49PF8C187XFZJ
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29