915 Seaside Dr Unit 312, Weeks 16-17

Siesta Key, FL 34242

$48,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$507
• HOA: −$1,102
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,210
• Net cashflow: $2,690/mo
• Annual: $32,284/yr
• Cap rate: 84.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 278.29%
• DSCR: 13.38
• 1% rule: 12.00%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $48k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($32k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $48k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $332 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $333 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#512 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Phillippi Shores Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 731 students, 38% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,760/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.