314 Birch St

Monett, MO 65708

$126,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1959 · Other · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,304/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$665
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,146/yr
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $35,532

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $877 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#252 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Monett R-I (town): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #168 of 324 in MO (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.8% in Monett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.