209 Sequoia Ln

Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$122,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax + insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $297/mo
• Annual: $3,561/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $34,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $847 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 11036% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $122k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.