390 Park St

Urbanna, VA 23175

$275,000C-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,281 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $255/mo
• Annual: $3,064/yr
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (12.7% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $240k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#482 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D-, #817 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 97% FRL); Middlesex High (math 92% / reading 82%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 346 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 44% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Middlesex County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.