15611 NW 173rd St

Alachua, FL 32615

$199,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,998/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $301/mo
• Annual: $3,618/yr
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in FL, #2,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 397 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.