307 Fairview Ave

Blackwell, OK 74631

$114,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $237/mo
• Annual: $2,849/yr
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#385 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blackwell (town): math 27% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #116 of 270 in OK (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blackwell Es (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #102 of 845 statewide, top 12%, 531 students, 0% FRL); Blackwell Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 331 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 61% district-wide (61 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Kay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kay County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 11.5% in Blackwell — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.