11658 Mud Fork Rd

Falls Mills, VA 24613

$135,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $260/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($260/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Tazewell County Public School District (town): math 67% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #21 of 131 in VA (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Tazewell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tazewell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.