8446 Sumner Ave

Cypress Lake, FL 33908

$465,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$335
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-878/yr
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-878/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $465k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($437k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $437k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#257 in FL, #4,125 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1251 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $465k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in Cypress Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,684/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1944% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.