Supernova Plan

Ponder, TX 76259

$340,490F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,682/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,592
• Tax + insurance: −$1,142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-2,615/mo
• Annual: $-31,374/yr
• Cap rate: 1.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.36%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.39%
• Cash to close: $191,779

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 4.3% in Ponder — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.