3299 Graves Gap Rd

Hayden, AL 35079

$209,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,619/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,980/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#137 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blount County (rural): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #54 of 129 in AL (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hayden Primary School (566 students, 50% FRL); Hayden Middle School (math 28% / reading 51%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 550 students, 44% FRL); Hayden High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 812 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Blount County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $209k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Hayden — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.