164 County Road 162

Sweeny, TX 77414

$46,559B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$244
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $498/mo
• Annual: $5,970/yr
• Cap rate: 19.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.80%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $13,037

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $47k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $322 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#306 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Van Vleck ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #492 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van Vleck El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 303 students, 58% FRL); Van Vleck Jr H S (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 243 students, 59% FRL); Van Vleck H S (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 355 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.4% in Sweeny — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.