1388 Chappell Mill Rd

Orchard Hill, GA 30233

$99,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $692/mo
• Annual: $8,308/yr
• Cap rate: 14.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.70%
• DSCR: 2.32
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#497 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Butts County (rural): math 24% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #103 of 174 in GA (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hampton L. Daughtry Elementary School (math 34% / reading 35%, grade F, #531 of 1,228 statewide, top 45%, 537 students, 83% FRL); Henderson Middle School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #286 of 470 statewide, top 61%, 767 students, 83% FRL); Jackson High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,070 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 61% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Butts County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butts County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 41% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.