3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,616 sqft ·
Built 1992
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 69 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,795/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,096
Tax + insurance
−$348
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$377
Net cashflow
$-26/mo
Annual
$-316/yr
Cap rate
6.14%
Cash-on-cash
-0.54%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$58,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-316/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (1.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (14.1% below list).
It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $180k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#462 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
Roland (town): math 18% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #182 of 270 in OK (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Roland Es (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #132 of 845 statewide, top 19%, 427 students, 0% FRL); Roland Ms (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #288 of 345 statewide, top 86%, 195 students, 0% FRL); Roland Hs (math 2% / reading 34%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 323 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 67% district-wide (67 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Sequoyah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sequoyah County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Paint
— Some wear on exterior and interior walls
Minor: Flooring
— Some wear on tile flooring
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29