411 S Adrian St

Tecumseh, MI 49286

$320,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,805 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$468
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $785/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (12.5% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $280k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#103 in MI, #2,459 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tecumseh Public Schools (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #181 of 540 in MI (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tecumseh Acres North Early Learning Center (303 students, 43% FRL); Tecumseh Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #248 of 493 statewide, top 53%, 793 students, 34% FRL); Tecumseh High School (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #109 of 713 statewide, top 17%, 800 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 52% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $217k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Tecumseh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.