420 Barker Dr

Savannah, TN 38372

$189,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,883 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,587/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (32.5% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#47 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Hardin County (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 139 in TN (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northside Elementary (math 38% / reading 32%, grade F, #316 of 952 statewide, top 33%, 508 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County Middle School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #135 of 333 statewide, top 43%, 677 students, 0% FRL); Hardin County High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #96 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 996 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 391 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $190k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.