4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,208 sqft ·
Built 1919
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,814/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$381
Net cashflow
$688/mo
Annual
$8,254/yr
Cap rate
14.55%
Cash-on-cash
29.48%
DSCR
2.31
1% rule
1.81%
Cash to close
$28,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mckinley El Sch (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,453 of 1,518 statewide, top 96%, 459 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $70k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29